Estonia has signalled it is prepared to host British fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons, as NATO members consider their rules of engagement following the breach of Estonian airspace by Russian aircraft last week.

Defence minister Hanno Pevkur said Tallinn would welcome allied deployments, including the UK’s future F-35A fleet, under NATO arrangements. His remarks were reported alongside confirmation that Italian F-35s stationed at Ämari base escorted the Russian aircraft out of Estonian airspace.

Estonia’s position comes amid allied consultations triggered under NATO’s Article 4 after three Russian MiG-31s allegedly entered Estonian airspace and remained for about 12 minutes. The Estonian government has said radar tracks and imagery support its assessment, while Moscow has rejected the allegation and accused Tallinn of provocation. The United Nations Security Council convened to discuss the incident.

The UK decision earlier this year to procure 12 F-35A aircraft—compatible with the US B61 gravity bomb as part of NATO’s dual-capable aircraft mission—provides the context for any potential forward presence in the Baltics. London has stated the purchase is intended to strengthen national security and bolster NATO’s deterrence posture. Delivery is due towards the end of the decade.

Any employment of nuclear capability would involve the United States, which manufactures the F-35A and controls the B61 weapon. While discussions in Tallinn have focused on hosting options, some UK defence voices caution against stationing a strategic asset in a forward, high-risk location, arguing such a move could be escalatory while conferring limited additional deterrent value.

NATO practice in the Baltic region has relied on rotational air policing rather than permanent national fighter fleets in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. British F-35s and Typhoons regularly take part, and RAF Typhoons were also dispatched to Poland under Operation Eastern Sentry after Warsaw reported more than 20 Russian drones crossing its border earlier this month.

Allied leaders are now debating how to respond to future violations. The emerging consensus points to calibrated, case-by-case responses rather than an automatic shoot-down policy. In Warsaw, Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Poland would down any object clearly violating its airspace, while urging caution in ambiguous situations that could risk escalation.

The UK has indicated a firm approach to unauthorised flights within NATO airspace. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told reporters in New York that Britain would confront aircraft operating without permission if required. Her comments aligned with calls from several allies for a coherent, rapid NATO response that avoids inadvertent escalation.

The Kremlin has denied that its aircraft entered Estonian airspace. A spokesperson described the claim as baseless. NATO and EU officials view the episode as part of a broader pattern of pressure on the alliance’s eastern flank, which has included drone incursions and approaches to critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.

Arms-control dynamics form a separate backdrop. In Moscow, President Vladimir Putin said Russia was prepared to observe New START warhead and launcher limits for one year beyond the treaty’s scheduled expiry in February 2026, if the United States reciprocated. The statement underscored the volatility of the strategic environment as allies discuss air-defence rules.

For Estonia, the priority is to ensure that decision-making thresholds and force packages are clear before any repeat incident. Hosting allied jets—nuclear-capable or otherwise—remains a pillar of Tallinn’s approach to deterrence by presence. NATO’s pending declaration is expected to clarify how capitals will handle future incursions, including the triggers for interception, escort and, in extremis, the use of force.

First published on eutoday.net.