GEOPOLITICAL INSIGHTS
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Europe’s gunpowder bottleneck: how cotton supply chains became a defence issue
Europe’s drive to expand artillery production has exposed a constraint that sits well upstream of the factory floor: access to nitrocellulose, the key chemical used in modern propellants. Nitrocellulose is produced by nitrating cellulose, and in the defence sector it…
A missile message to Europe: what Russia’s Oreshnik strike was meant to signal
For a second time in a little over a year, Russia has used its Oreshnik missile against Ukraine, and for a second time the political message has been louder than the physical results. The latest launch was recorded overnight on…
China, Russia and Iran join South Africa for BRICS naval drills off Cape Town
CAPE TOWN — Warships from China, Russia and Iran have begun a week of naval drills with South Africa in waters off Cape Town, in an exercise organised under the BRICS grouping as Washington escalates action against Venezuelan oil shipments.…
Europe’s Defence Illusion: “Readiness 2030” Will Not Deter Anyone
On paper, Readiness 2030 is the European Union’s bold answer to a deteriorating global security landscape. The initiative, quietly rebranded from its bluntly honest predecessor, ReArm Europe, promises to channel as much as €800 billion into defence spending through loans,…
After the raid: Washington has seized Maduro, but not Venezuela
The United States has removed Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro in a single night of air strikes and a Special Forces raid. The harder question is what, precisely, Washington thinks it has taken control of. Mr Maduro and his wife, Cilia…
How China Is Systematically Undermining Western Security
For years, Washington preferred euphemism to clarity when discussing China’s military rise. It spoke of “modernisation”, of “regional ambitions”, of a power merely seeking its place in the world. That indulgence has now evaporated. In unusually blunt language, the Pentagon…
Putin’s ‘Novorossiya’ Rhetoric Returns as West Floats Territorial Deal
Vladimir Putin has brought the term “Novorossiya” back into his public vocabulary, declaring at a press conference in New Delhi that the “liberation” of both Donbas and “Novorossiya” by Russian forces is inevitable. The intervention comes as United States envoys…
Ukraine, Russia and the Future of NATO: Europe Wakes Up to a Long War
Europe’s security debate is shifting from the language of “hybrid harassment” to that of a low-intensity war. A recent Financial Times analysis argues that Russia is conducting a systematic campaign of sabotage across the continent, using parcel bombs, arson, cyber…
What the President of Finland keeps silent about and what Ukraine must shout about
Western faith in multilateralism and “value-based realism” conceals a deeper strategic crisis, Hanna Hopko argues, as Ukraine and other “in-between” states become the decisive battleground in an emerging global confrontation. Finnish President Alexander Stubb wrote an article for Foreign Affairs…
Pentagon Sets 2027 Deadline for Europe to Lead NATO’s Conventional Defence
The United States has privately told European NATO allies that it expects them to assume the bulk of the Alliance’s conventional defence in Europe by 2027 and is prepared to step back from key planning roles if that does not…