STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
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The New Polar Front: Why Greenland Matters Again to Western Defence
In the long Arctic dusk, where the horizon blurs into a pale sheet of ice and the air itself seems to crystallise, modern air power is subjected to a test no laboratory can replicate. This winter the North American Aerospace…
From Treaties to Tensions: How the Nuclear Order Is Unravelling
When Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov says Moscow is ready for a world without nuclear limits, he is not threatening apocalypse. He is doing something more unsettling: calmly acknowledging that the era of negotiated restraint between great powers is…
If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat
When Carlo Masala set out his hypothetical “Russian victory” in Ukraine, he defined it narrowly: not a march to Kyiv, but Moscow retaining the territories it already occupies. That premise matters because it aligns with the kind of “freeze” or…
South China Sea Tensions Surge as China Steps Up Patrols around Scarborough Shoal
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theatre Command has announced a fresh round of naval and air patrols around Scarborough Shoal, the coral outcrop that has become the unlikeliest flashpoint of the Indo-Pacific’s simmering strategic contest. The declaration, terse but…
Chagos Archipelago: Britain’s Self-Inflicted Strategic Retreat in the Indian Ocean
There are bad ideas in politics, and then there are ideas so recklessly self-defeating that one wonders whether national interest has been deliberately left out of the room. The UK’s current Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s proposed handover of the Chagos…
Latvia intelligence: Russia is starting to view Latvia as it viewed Ukraine before the invasion
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (Satversmes aizsardzības birojs, SAB) has warned that Russia is beginning to regard Latvia as it regarded Ukraine before the invasion, even though the service assesses that Moscow does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia.…
Chopping off the predator’s paws: what Europe’s new security requires
Between Davos and Munich In a few weeks, the theme of the 56th World Economic Forum will have slipped off the front pages, though references to “Trump in Davos”, “Carney in Davos”, “Zelenskyy in Davos” and the rest will remain.…
Nightfall: Britain promises Ukraine a ballistic missile – but the hard part comes after the press release
Britain says it will help Ukraine by developing a new ground-launched ballistic missile able to carry a 200kg warhead beyond 500 kilometres. The project, codenamed Nightfall, is billed as a rapid boost to Kyiv’s long-range strike power. It is also,…
Japan Steps Forward as a Pillar of Pacific Security
For much of the post-war era, Japan defined itself by restraint. Its pacifist constitution, born of defeat and devastation, shaped a national identity rooted in economic strength rather than military power. Yet as we move into 2026, Japan is quietly…
China’s Sanctions on America Are Loud, Symbolic – and Strategically Empty
Beijing insists that Taiwan is the immovable core of its national interest, the issue on which there can be no compromise and no retreat. Yet when confronted with the largest American arms package ever approved for the island, China’s response…