STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
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Ukraine Reshuffles Intelligence, Security Council and Washington Representation
Kyiv’s latest personnel moves reorganise foreign intelligence, security co-ordination and representation in Washington at a moment when Ukraine’s military position and diplomatic track are increasingly intertwined. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reorganised three sensitive parts of Ukraine’s wartime state: foreign intelligence,…
Low-Cost Sea Drone’s Approach to Chinese Destroyer Exposes Screening Gap
Verified footage of a commercial autonomous vessel near a Type 052D destroyer illustrates the identification problem created by cheap uncrewed craft.
US–Iran Bombing Pause Reveals the Price of Preserving Military Options
Iran’s conditional halt has created room for diplomacy, but Washington’s diminishing target set and the opportunity cost of scarce interceptors help explain why an operational pause may now be more valuable than another night of strikes.
US military action in Mali would open a new front against jihadists — and place American forces close to Russia’s Africa Corps
The reported deliberations are not simply about striking an al-Qaeda affiliate. Any American operation would enter a fragmented conflict in which Russian forces support Mali’s junta, jihadists control strategic routes and Western access to the central Sahel has sharply contracted.…
Russia’s missile production depends on supply chains that sanctions have yet to close
Russia has maintained and expanded missile production despite Western export restrictions. Its continued dependence on imported microelectronics is well documented, while claims that chemical precursors reach its defence industry from Uzbekistan require closer examination by sanctions authorities. Russia’s ability to…
Middle East Crisis Enters Dangerous New Phase After Iranian Strikes on Gulf States
The fragile assumptions underpinning security in the Gulf have been shattered once again as Washington pressed ahead with another night of air strikes against Iranian military targets. Tehran responded by broadening its campaign beyond direct confrontation with the United States,…
From burning refineries to maritime blockade: a new strategy of pressure on Russia
Ukraine’s sustained strikes on Russian refineries, fuel infrastructure and maritime logistics are no longer isolated operations, but part of a wider strategy to weaken the Kremlin’s war economy, disrupt energy exports and turn Russia’s own blockade tactics back against it.…
Putin’s Fuel Problem Exposes the Limits of Russia’s War Narrative
Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil and logistics infrastructure have forced the Kremlin to explain fuel shortages, refinery disruption and pressure in occupied Crimea, even as Vladimir Putin insists the war is proceeding according to plan. Vladimir Putin’s address to the…
Moscow Signals Retreat from ‘Anchorage’ Formula as Ukraine and Europe Hold the Line
A new statement by Yuri Ushakov, a senior aide to Vladimir Putin, suggests that Moscow is moving away from earlier expectations linked to the so-called “Anchorage” understandings between Russia and the United States. His remarks are important not because they…