STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
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From burning refineries to maritime blockade: a new strategy of pressure on Russia
Ukraine’s sustained strikes on Russian refineries, fuel infrastructure and maritime logistics are no longer isolated operations, but part of a wider strategy to weaken the Kremlin’s war economy, disrupt energy exports and turn Russia’s own blockade tactics back against it.…
Putin’s Fuel Problem Exposes the Limits of Russia’s War Narrative
Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil and logistics infrastructure have forced the Kremlin to explain fuel shortages, refinery disruption and pressure in occupied Crimea, even as Vladimir Putin insists the war is proceeding according to plan. Vladimir Putin’s address to the…
Moscow Signals Retreat from ‘Anchorage’ Formula as Ukraine and Europe Hold the Line
A new statement by Yuri Ushakov, a senior aide to Vladimir Putin, suggests that Moscow is moving away from earlier expectations linked to the so-called “Anchorage” understandings between Russia and the United States. His remarks are important not because they…
Taiwan’s Latest Military Drill Highlights a More Dangerous Status Quo
Taiwan’s armed forces will begin a five-day combat readiness exercise this week, marking another step in the island’s effort to reshape its military planning around a stark strategic reality: any future conflict with China may arrive with little warning. The…
NATO’s Kosovo Drawdown Signals Confidence — but Not Complacency
NATO’s decision to begin gradually reducing the size of its peacekeeping mission in Kosovo marks an important milestone in one of the alliance’s longest-running operations. Yet it also serves as a reminder that stability in the Western Balkans remains a…
Crimea’s Growing Isolation Exposes Russia’s Strategic Miscalculation
The latest overnight attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea have again exposed the peninsula’s central military weakness: its dependence on vulnerable supply routes linking it to occupied parts of southern Ukraine and to Russia itself. Strikes around Armyansk, following earlier damage to…
China and Taiwan’s Maritime Stand-off Signals a Dangerous New Phase
China and Taiwan’s latest confrontation over coast guard patrols east of the island underlines an increasingly volatile reality in the western Pacific: the battle for influence is no longer confined to fighter jets crossing median lines or naval exercises in…
Britain’s Defence Delusion: A Nation Rearming in Slow Motion
As Europe confronts its most dangerous security environment since the end of the Cold War, Britain’s political leadership appears trapped in a familiar cycle: ambitious declarations, strategic reviews and spending pledges that repeatedly fail to translate into meaningful action. The…
Taipei and Beijing Test Boundaries Again at Pratas as South China Sea Tensions Deepen
A fresh confrontation between Taiwanese and Chinese coast guard vessels near the Pratas Islands has underscored how the South China Sea is becoming an increasingly important theatre in the broader contest between Taipei and Beijing. What might once have been dismissed…
Zaluzhnyi says Black Sea control is central to Ukraine’s survival and Europe’s security
Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief used the Black Sea Security Forum in Odesa to argue that maritime control is not a regional issue, but a strategic condition for Ukraine’s economy, European security and the future balance of power around Russia. Valerii Zaluzhnyi…