STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
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Belarus Nuclear Drills Raise Pressure on NATO’s Eastern Flank
Belarus has begun training linked to the use of Russian nuclear weapons, adding a new military signal on NATO’s eastern border as Moscow and Minsk deepen their defence integration. Belarus said on Monday that its armed forces had begun training…
How Trump Is Weakening the Atlantic Alliance
For decades, the great strategic assumption underpinning the Western alliance was simple: the United States might at times be impatient, overbearing or self-interested, but it remained fundamentally committed to the security and sovereignty of its allies. That assumption is now…
Trump’s Blind Spot: How America’s European Bases Serve Washington, Not Brussels
Donald Trump’s periodic threats to reduce—or even dismantle—America’s military footprint in Europe betray a strikingly narrow understanding of what those bases are for. The popular shorthand, often repeated in political rhetoric, is that the United States stations troops in Europe…
Trump’s Germany Drawdown Signals a Shift Europe Cannot Ignore
Washington’s planned withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany may be presented as a bilateral dispute with Berlin, but it sends a wider signal to Moscow, NATO and Europe about the future of American deterrence on the continent. The Pentagon’s confirmation…
France’s Bid to Anchor a New European Security Order Faces Test of Scale, Industry and Politics
As confidence in Washington’s long-term role in NATO weakens, Paris is seeking to place France at the centre of Europe’s defence adaptation. But nuclear status and strategic ambition do not by themselves provide the troops, industry, logistics and political continuity…
Russian Setback in Mali Exposes Limits of Moscow’s Sahel Strategy
The killing of Mali’s defence minister and the reported withdrawal of Russian-backed forces from Kidal have exposed the limits of Bamako’s reliance on Moscow, as jihadist and Tuareg forces challenge the authority of the military junta. Mali’s military authorities are…
China’s Own ‘Mythos’ Moment Raises Stakes in AI Cyber Race with US
A new warning from former US National Security Council technology official Chris McGuire argues that China could soon develop an AI cyber capability comparable to Anthropic’s Claude Mythos, narrowing America’s lead and increasing pressure on Washington to harden critical infrastructure…
The Falkland Islands: A Dispute Settled in Battle, Confirmed in Law, Revived in Politics
Argentina’s periodic reawakening of its claim over the Falkland Islands is as predictable as it is politically useful. Each resurgence tends to coincide less with any meaningful shift in international law than with domestic pressures in Buenos Aires. The latest…
Portugal: Nuno Melo draws red line on EU army ambitions as Spain pushes strategic autonomy debate
Portugal has firmly rejected the idea of a separate European army, placing itself at odds with Spain and reopening a long-running debate over the future of Europe’s defence architecture at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Speaking in Lisbon, Portugal’s…
Is Beijing prolonging war in Iran to expose America’s weakness?
The reports emerging from Washington this week are, on the face of it, fragmentary and hedged with caveats. Yet even in their ambiguity they point to something far more consequential than the mere movement of weapons. According to intelligence assessments…