Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assess that Vladimir Putin may have organised or at least approved the disclosure of Kremlin thinking to Bloomberg about plans to step up attacks on Ukraine’s energy system and other critical infrastructure.

The assessment, published on 21 September, argues that the Kremlin’s tight control of official and insider messaging makes it likely that such a leak was sanctioned to serve Moscow’s information objectives.

Bloomberg reported on 20 September that people close to the Kremlin said Putin has concluded military escalation is the most effective way to push Ukraine towards negotiations on Russian terms, and that the United States is unlikely to take steps that would materially strengthen Ukraine’s defences. The same report said Putin intends to continue targeting Ukraine’s power grid and other infrastructure.

ISW links the timing and content of the leak to a broader Kremlin effort to shape Western debates and public opinion. According to the think tank, Moscow likely sought to exploit differences between European and American officials, reinforce a narrative of Russia’s eventual victory, and instil apprehension in Ukrainian society ahead of the 2025–26 winter heating season. ISW notes that such messaging is consistent with a long-running strategy to divide Ukraine’s backers and test the cohesion of Western support.

The Bloomberg article followed the 15 August Trump–Putin summit at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, which concluded without a public agreement. Subsequent accounts describe the meeting as yielding “no deal”, with follow-on commentary from U.S. and European sources indicating limited prospects for near-term progress. ISW’s reading of the leak is that the Alaska talks, coupled with Kyiv’s rejection of Russian demands, informed Putin’s judgement to escalate rather than moderate military pressure.

Bloomberg further reported—citing data from Ukraine’s Air Force Command—that Russian drone and missile strikes increased by about 46% in the month after the Alaska meeting. The period has included one of the larger combined missile-and-drone salvos in recent weeks, causing civilian casualties and damage across multiple regions, according to independent reporting.

ISW underscores that insider statements about Putin’s determination to secure a military victory omit systemic constraints on Russia’s armed forces. The think tank has repeatedly assessed that Russian capabilities remain insufficient to impose political control over the whole of Ukraine or to achieve a decisive battlefield result. ISW has also observed instances in which the Kremlin has tasked the military with objectives beyond its capacity, raising the question of whether Putin receives inaccurate assessments or chooses to disregard acknowledged limitations.

The think tank places the latest signalling within a broader information campaign that intensified following President Trump’s inauguration in January 2025. In ISW’s view, messaging via Western outlets can serve multiple purposes for the Kremlin: probing allied unity, shaping media narratives around the inevitability of Russian success, and preparing domestic and foreign audiences for continued strikes on energy infrastructure as temperatures fall.

Statements from Western officials in recent days have pointed in a similar direction regarding Moscow’s stance on talks. The head of the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service, Richard Moore, said this week that Putin shows no readiness to negotiate on terms acceptable to Ukraine, characterising current diplomatic activity as unlikely to yield substantive concessions from the Kremlin.

The Alaska summit sits in the background of these developments. Public accounts indicate no breakthrough and continued distance between the parties on core issues. Subsequent commentary by President Trump has included criticism of European energy purchases from Russia and frustration with Kremlin follow-through, while Russian officials have highlighted ongoing bilateral contacts on selected economic matters.

ISW’s conclusion is that a Russian victory in Ukraine is not inevitable and that Ukraine, the United States and European partners retain leverage over the course of the war. The think tank therefore reads the Bloomberg leak not as evidence of decisive advantage, but as calibrated signalling intended to influence Western decision-making and Ukrainian public sentiment ahead of winter.