The prospect of a Socialist government in France, under Olivier Faure, may look on the surface like an ordinary change of political colour.

Yet beneath the rhetoric of fairness and redistribution lie serious questions about how such a shift would affect France’s security, its armed forces, and the European Union’s already fragile defence posture.

France is no minor player in this field. It is Europe’s only nuclear power after Brexit, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and a leading contributor to NATO operations. A change in political leadership therefore carries implications well beyond Paris. If Faure’s Socialists were to win office, their fiscal and ideological instincts could reverberate across Europe’s security architecture.

Defence Budgets Under Pressure

The first and most immediate risk concerns resources. Faure’s Socialists have pledged to fund new spending commitments through a 2 percent wealth tax on fortunes above €100 million, a policy framed as both just and necessary. Yet the revenues are uncertain and, even if achieved, modest relative to France’s €3 trillion debt and yawning deficit.

Defence spending would inevitably be caught in the squeeze. Historically, Socialist governments in France have deprioritised military budgets in favour of welfare and social programmes. With rising debt costs and higher taxation driving capital flight, the temptation to freeze or trim defence expenditure would be high. This comes precisely when NATO is urging European members to reach or exceed the 2 percent of GDP target, and when France’s armed forces are overstretched from the Sahel to Eastern Europe.

Weakening France’s Strategic Autonomy

President Macron has made much of the idea of “strategic autonomy” for Europe—an ambition to reduce dependence on the United States. Whether one views it as visionary or hubristic, it requires serious investment in capabilities. Fighter aircraft, naval assets, cyber defence, and space technologies all demand consistent, long-term funding.

A Faure-led Socialist government, focused on redistributive taxation and domestic welfare, is unlikely to make such commitments. The rhetoric of independence may remain, but the means to achieve it would diminish. France’s role as Europe’s military heavyweight could shrink, leaving the continent more reliant than ever on American protection at the very moment when Washington’s commitment is in doubt.

NATO Relations at Risk

Socialist governments across Europe have often been ambivalent about NATO, seeing it as an extension of US power rather than a collective shield. While Faure has not explicitly advocated leaving NATO’s integrated command, his coalition partners on the Left—Greens, Communists, and far-left factions—have long argued for scaling back NATO commitments.

A Socialist government in France would face pressure from within its own parliamentary bloc to reduce deployments in Eastern Europe, cut back on defence procurement linked to NATO, and pursue a more “non-aligned” foreign policy. This would be a serious blow to the Alliance, coming at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine continues and doubts about American reliability under a possible Trump presidency loom large.

Counter-Terrorism and Domestic Security

France has faced repeated Islamist terrorist attacks over the past decade. The challenge of integration, radicalisation, and home-grown extremism remains acute. Here, too, a Socialist government could adopt policies that weaken security resilience.

Olivier Faure’s rhetoric emphasises social equality and inclusion rather than enforcement. While these themes may play well in political campaigns, they risk translating into softer policing and more lenient counter-radicalisation measures. Previous Socialist administrations placed greater emphasis on addressing “root causes” than on aggressive counter-terrorism, a balance that can prove dangerous when networks are active and well-funded.

For France’s security services, continuity and firmness are crucial. A Socialist tilt toward social programmes at the expense of security budgets could undermine the domestic fight against terrorism just as threats evolve, particularly with jihadist groups regrouping in the Sahel and eyeing Europe once again.

EU Defence Integration

Within the EU, momentum has been building—albeit slowly—for greater integration on defence. The European Defence Fund, PESCO projects, and joint procurement initiatives have all been steps toward coordination, though real progress remains limited.

France has been a driver of this agenda, often pushing reluctant partners like Germany toward more ambition. A Socialist government, distracted by domestic redistribution and fiscally constrained, may pull back from leadership in this area. Without French pressure, EU defence integration could stall altogether. That would leave Europe more fragmented and vulnerable, precisely when Russia and China are exploiting divisions.

Impact on the French Defence Industry

Perhaps the most direct consequence would be felt by France’s defence industrial base. Firms such as Dassault Aviation, Naval Group, Thales, Safran, and MBDA depend heavily on consistent state procurement, long-term contracts, and export support from the government.

A Socialist government that seeks quick fiscal savings would almost certainly cut or delay procurement orders—whether Rafale jets, Scorpène submarines, or missile systems. Export promotion, often requiring political backing at the highest level, would be weakened by a leadership less comfortable championing arms sales abroad.

For investors in these companies, the risks are clear: weaker cash flows, reduced R&D budgets, and diminished global competitiveness. European rivals—particularly German and Italian firms—would stand to benefit if Paris loses its edge. Over the medium term, France’s ability to maintain a sovereign defence industrial base could be eroded, undermining both national security and Europe’s collective strength.

Forecast Scenarios

Short term (1–2 years):
Defence spending stagnates as Socialist priorities shift resources elsewhere. France continues to meet NATO commitments in name, but deployments are scaled back. Investors in Dassault, Thales, and Naval Group face uncertainty over procurement orders.

Medium term (5 years):
France falls below NATO’s 2 percent spending target. Export competitiveness of French defence firms declines, and EU defence projects lose momentum. Russia and other adversaries exploit Europe’s credibility gap.

Long term (10 years):
France’s armed forces face capability gaps, its defence industry contracts, and its nuclear deterrent becomes increasingly isolated. The EU loses its most credible military engine. NATO becomes more fragmented, with Eastern Europe reliant almost entirely on the US.

A Socialist government under Olivier Faure would not only reshape France’s domestic fiscal landscape; it would also carry profound risks for security and defence, both nationally and across the EU. Defence budgets would be squeezed, NATO commitments weakened, counter-terrorism diluted, EU defence integration stalled, and the French defence industry endangered.

For Europe, already facing mounting threats from Russia, instability in Africa, and uncertainty in Washington, such a shift would be perilous. France’s strength has long been a cornerstone of European security. Under Socialist leadership, that cornerstone risks crumbling at the very moment it is most needed.