Europe’s military recruitment landscape is in flux. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and rising geopolitical tensions worldwide, European states have sought to expand and modernise their armed forces.

Despite significant increases in defence spending and ambitious force growth plans, many European nations are struggling to meet recruitment goals — particularly in voluntary systems — raising questions about readiness, societal attitudes toward service, and the sustainability of current strategies.

Recent data and defence reporting reveal a pattern: numerous European militaries face recruitment shortfalls, retention challenges, and demographic hurdles that undermine their ability to grow their ranks to meet strategic need. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), most European armies struggle to meet recruitment targets and retain trained personnel, a trend that is impeding efforts to generate sufficient reserve forces and active-duty strength.

The Context: Europe’s Changing Security Environment

Over more than two decades, many European countries reduced the size of their armed forces. Post-Cold War optimism, budgetary constraints, and public ambivalence toward military engagement led to smaller standing armies, decreased training capacity, and an emphasis on technology over manpower. The war in Ukraine, however, has spurred a major rethink of these models.

European governments are now investing heavily in defence modernisation — including advanced equipment and expanded capabilities — but these investments highlight a persistent bottleneck: people. Weapons systems are useless without soldiers to operate them, and recent reporting underlines a stark reality: spending targets may be on track, but personnel targets are often not.

This tension is not purely theoretical. Major powers with voluntary forces are having difficulty convincing enough young people to join. Meanwhile, countries with conscription have mixed results, ranging from successful integration into military life to societal resistance and political debate.

Germany: Recruitment Below Ambition

Germany is one of the clearest examples of recruitment struggles in Europe. As Europe’s largest economy and a leading NATO ally, Berlin has set ambitious goals for the Bundeswehr, including a planned increase to approximately 203,000 personnel by 2031 and potentially beyond. However, the military continues to fall short of these targets.

In recent years, recruiting numbers have declined, with reports indicating a 7% drop in recruits in 2023 despite large-scale advertising and investment. Reports also note that overall personnel numbers dipped as soldiers left service, even as the government offered incentives and considered new recruitment strategies.

Germany’s challenges stem from demographic decline, cultural attitudes toward service, and competition with civilian opportunities in a strong labour market. The government has abolished conscription (in 2011) but is now debating whether to reintroduce compulsory registration for 18-year-olds to identify potential candidates — a potential first step toward deeper compulsory service if volunteer recruitment proves insufficient.

The United Kingdom: Chronic Shortfalls

The UK illustrates how even longstanding military powers with professional volunteer forces can struggle to sustain recruitment. According to analysis referenced in research reports, British army recruitment has consistently fallen short of targets for years. In 2023, the UK’s army recruitment reportedly achieved only about 68% of its annual goal, and the first three quarters of 2024 continued this trend.

Furthermore, the UK saw a net loss in personnel, with more soldiers leaving service than joining, a factor exacerbated by relatively low pay in some roles and fierce competition from the private sector. Recruitment shortfalls have also affected the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force, creating bottlenecks that compromise operational effectiveness — for instance, the ability to staff new vessels or modern aircraft.

France: Expansion Plans, Persistent Gaps

France — Europe’s second-largest military — is pursuing ambitious expansion plans, including a proposal to introduce a 10-month voluntary military service aimed at recruiting up to 50,000 volunteers per year by 2035. This move comes amid concerns that existing recruitment has not kept pace with strategic aims.

Research indicates that France’s army missed its recruitment target by several thousand personnel in 2023, and shortfalls have affected air and land forces, although the navy did better. To address this, Paris has proposed new incentives and retention initiatives, balanced against political sensitivities, given the absence of mandatory service since 1997.

The Netherlands: Growth But Not Enough

The Dutch armed forces provide a case of measured growth with persistent recruitment gaps. The Netherlands aims to expand to a 100,000-strong defence force by 2030, but reports show that recruitment levels, including part-time reservists, remain below what is needed to hit these targets.

Despite rising personnel numbers and a significant recruitment campaign, over 20% of professional soldier positions remain unfilled, and the reserve component — crucial for the Netherlands’ “war organization” concept — is far short of its goals.

Italy and Southern Europe: Understrength Forces

Italy is often cited by defence observers as having an “undersized” military relative to its strategic commitments. Research indicates that the Italian armed forces were below thresholds that senior officials described as necessary for basic viability, a situation attributed in part to recruitment shortfalls. Although Italy may not publicise detailed annual targets in the same way as others, the broader assessment highlights systemic recruitment challenges tied to demographic and economic trends.

Greece, Portugal, Malta, and Smaller States

According to European armed forces association surveys, Greece, Portugal, and Malta have seen declining recruitment numbers over recent years, particularly compared with earlier decades. Other smaller states also face similar downward trends, though the absolute scale varies.

Eastern Europe: Mixed Performances

Eastern European militaries present a more nuanced picture. In Poland, official statements suggest recruitment targets are being met, even as challenges remain in retention and competition with civilian employment. However, neighboring states — including the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania — have struggled to maintain sufficient enlistment levels to keep units fully staffed, according to defence commentary.

It is also worth noting that conscription remains in place in several Eastern European and Nordic states (e.g., Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, Sweden), providing a more stable foundation for personnel numbers, though not immune to demographic pressures.

Why Recruitment Shortfalls Persist

The underlying causes of these recruitment challenges are complex and interconnected. Europe’s population is aging and, in many countries, shrinking. Fewer young people mean a smaller pool of potential recruits. Moreover, many European economies have low unemployment rates, making military careers less competitive compared to civilian jobs that offer higher pay, better hours, and clearer paths to advancement.

Societal Attitudes and Generational Values

Younger Europeans often express ambivalence toward military careers. Surveys show limited willingness to fight in a hypothetical future war — as low as roughly one-third of respondents in some polls — and rising pacifist or individualistic values among Gen Z. With voluntary systems, lack of societal enthusiasm for service translates directly into recruitment struggles.

Structural and Institutional Challenges

Military service is demanding physically and psychologically, and perceptions of negative quality-of-life (frequent relocations, family disruption, risk) discourage enlistment. In some countries, recruitment processes are viewed as inefficient or unattractive, while leadership may struggle to motivate new generations.

Retention: Keeping What You Recruit

Recruitment is only part of the picture. Retention also matters: many European militaries report significant numbers of personnel leaving service early, creating churn that undermines force growth. Germany, for example, has seen soldiers leave before completing longer-term commitments despite expanded recruitment efforts.

Approaches to Fixing the Problem

Countries are experimenting with a range of responses:

• Revived or expanded conscription — Some states (France, Croatia, Latvia) are moving toward new forms of mandatory or semi-mandatory service to ensure steady inflows of personnel.

• Incentives and benefits — Sign-on bonuses, improved pay, educational support, and career development programs aim to make military service financially competitive.

• Outreach and cultural campaigns — Governments and armed forces are leveraging media and targeted advertising to appeal to younger demographics.

• Reservist expansion — Several countries are building larger, more flexible reserve forces as a supplement to full-time staffing.

Europe’s defence ambitions have never been higher, yet military recruitment remains a stubborn bottleneck in turning those ambitions into reality. Nations large and small — from Germany and the UK to the Netherlands, France, Italy, and beyond — find it challenging to fill their ranks despite heightened security imperatives.

A mix of demographic decline, evolving societal values, economic competition, and institutional inertia means that recruitment strategies must evolve further if Europe hopes to sustain credible defence postures in an era of geostrategic uncertainty. Simple increases in defence spending, no matter how large, will not solve the underlying personnel crisis without cultural shifts and creative policy responses.

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