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The 48-Hour Problem: NATO’s Response Under Pressure in a Baltic Drill

The 48-Hour Problem: NATO’s Response Under Pressure in a Baltic Drill

In the days leading up to the Munich Security Conference on 13–15 February 2026, European media carried a run of scenario-based reporting on how a future security shock might unfold on NATO’s eastern flank. Several of the most widely circulated…

If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat

If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat

When Carlo Masala set out his hypothetical “Russian victory” in Ukraine, he defined it narrowly: not a march to Kyiv, but Moscow retaining the territories it already occupies. That premise matters because it aligns with the kind of “freeze” or…

China-linked machine tools and chips: claims of a supply chain behind Russia’s Oreshnik missile

China-linked machine tools and chips: claims of a supply chain behind Russia’s Oreshnik missile

European governments have often treated dialogue with Beijing as a practical channel in foreign policy, including in managing risks linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine. A recent investigation by The Telegraph has prompted a different focus: whether Chinese-origin industrial equipment…

Chopping off the predator’s paws: what Europe’s new security requires

Chopping off the predator’s paws: what Europe’s new security requires

Between Davos and Munich In a few weeks, the theme of the 56th World Economic Forum will have slipped off the front pages, though references to “Trump in Davos”, “Carney in Davos”, “Zelenskyy in Davos” and the rest will remain.…