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Drone activity near Estonia and Latvia renews focus on NATO’s eastern flank

Unidentified drone falls inside Polish electronic warfare base near Suwałki Gap

An unidentified drone fell onto the grounds of a Poland military installation in the town of Przasnysz on 28 January, prompting a Polish Military Police investigation and fresh scrutiny of security at sites tasked with monitoring NATO’s north-eastern flank. The…

New EU funding and procurement architecture for Ukraine shifts towards arms contracts

New EU funding and procurement architecture for Ukraine shifts towards arms contracts

The European Commission has put forward a new two-year financial package designed to cover a large share of Ukraine’s forecast needs in 2026 and 2027, while tying a substantial portion of EU-level support more directly to defence procurement. The proposals,…

If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat

If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat

When Carlo Masala set out his hypothetical “Russian victory” in Ukraine, he defined it narrowly: not a march to Kyiv, but Moscow retaining the territories it already occupies. That premise matters because it aligns with the kind of “freeze” or…

Latvia intelligence: Russia is starting to view Latvia as it viewed Ukraine before the invasion

Latvia intelligence: Russia is starting to view Latvia as it viewed Ukraine before the invasion

Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (Satversmes aizsardzības birojs, SAB) has warned that Russia is beginning to regard Latvia as it regarded Ukraine before the invasion, even though the service assesses that Moscow does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia.…