Russian Drone Incursions Put NATO’s South-Eastern Flank Under Sustained Pressure

Romania has recorded 24 unauthorised drone incursions in 2026, compared with nine during the whole of last year, while military aircraft have been scrambled 43 times. A succession of incidents over land and around Black Sea energy infrastructure is turning Russia’s war against Ukraine into a persistent air and maritime security problem for NATO.

Russian drone operations around southern Ukraine are placing sustained pressure on Romania’s air defences, with unmanned aircraft repeatedly crossing NATO territory while potentially explosive systems have been discovered close to strategically important Black Sea energy infrastructure.

The scale of the increase is clear from official Romanian defence ministry figures updated on 20th August. Romania has recorded 55 drone attacks near its frontier with Ukraine this year, prompting 43 aircraft scrambles. There have been 24 unauthorised drone entries, four drones have been shot down and 28 drones or sets of fragments have been identified.

In the whole of 2025, Romania recorded nine unauthorised entries and 21 scrambles. In 2024, there were seven incursions and 12 scrambles. Since the beginning of the war, the Romanian authorities have recorded 42 unauthorised entries — meaning that more than half have occurred in 2026 alone.

The figures increasingly make it difficult to regard each incursion as an isolated border incident.

On 20th August, Romania’s military radar network detected a group of aerial targets near the Ukrainian border at 02:23. Two Spanish F-18 fighters operating on NATO air-policing duties were scrambled and a Romanian IAR-330 SOCAT helicopter was sent on a reconnaissance mission.

A public warning was issued at 03:20. One minute later, a drone crossed into Romanian national airspace approximately 13 kilometres east of Galați.

By 03:24, the Romanian helicopter crew had located the aircraft after it crashed about four kilometres north-east of Grindu in Tulcea County. The impact caused a fire, although it extinguished itself and no casualties or material damage were reported. The wreckage was subsequently recovered and the investigation was transferred to prosecutors.

The episode involved an unmanned aircraft crossing the sovereign airspace of a NATO member while allied fighters were already airborne attempting to monitor the situation.

Explosive drone near Black Sea energy infrastructure

Only hours later, Romania faced a separate threat at sea.

A commercial vessel reported a small maritime drone drifting in Romania’s exclusive economic zone at about 06:28, close to the Neptun Alpha platform and approximately 80 nautical miles east of Constanța.

Two Romanian F-16s were scrambled. One of the aircraft engaged the drone with its onboard cannon and hit it before a Coast Guard vessel carrying Romanian naval explosive-ordnance specialists reached the area.

Subsequent examination established that there had been one drone, that the F-16 had damaged but not completely destroyed it and that the EOD team had then neutralised it. Crucially, Romania’s Defence Ministry confirmed that the vessel was carrying an explosive charge.

The incident was not without precedent.

On 11th August, Romanian naval divers destroyed two unmanned aircraft found drifting approximately 90 nautical miles off Constanța near the Neptun Deep perimeter. The devices were identified as Gerbera drones and were considered capable of carrying explosive payloads. A drone wing was also recovered. The Romanian military said Ukraine had confirmed that the systems did not belong to Ukrainian forces.

Five days later, another drone wing was recovered near the Neptun Alpha platform after being spotted by a commercial vessel.

The succession of incidents around offshore installations adds a maritime and infrastructure-security dimension to the problem. Romania is no longer dealing solely with stray aerial objects falling close to its Danube frontier. Military forces are now being required to identify and neutralise unmanned systems in waters containing important offshore energy facilities.

Moldova faces parallel incursions

Neighbouring Moldova, although not a NATO member, is experiencing the same geographic spillover.

During Russian attacks against Ukrainian port infrastructure at Reni on 20th August, Moldovan surveillance systems detected an unauthorised drone entering national airspace at 03:16.

The aircraft was preliminarily identified as a Shahed-136, or Geran-2. It flew towards Etulia in the autonomous region of Gagauzia before leaving Moldovan airspace six minutes later and returning towards Ukraine.

Investigators near Giurgiulești subsequently discovered two explosion craters, metal fragments and engine components. Preliminary examination identified the wreckage as belonging to a Geran-type unmanned aircraft.

The following night brought another incident. Moldovan border patrols heard Shahed-type drones and observed explosions on Ukrainian territory around the Tabachi crossing. The drones came down about 300 metres from Moldova’s border, damaging the Ukrainian border checkpoint.

Intent uncertain, operational effect clear

There is an important distinction between establishing that a Russian drone crossed NATO territory and proving that Moscow deliberately directed it there. Navigation failures, electronic warfare, damage or disruption during Ukrainian defensive action can alter a drone’s flight path.

Public evidence does not demonstrate that every Romanian incursion was an intentional attack on NATO territory.

But the operational consequence is increasingly independent of that question.

Every penetration requires detection and identification. Fighters may have to be launched. Civilian warnings may have to be issued. Commanders must decide whether an aircraft represents an immediate threat and whether it should be engaged. Ground teams then have to locate and examine wreckage, sometimes containing explosives.

NATO has already altered its posture in response to the wider pattern. The alliance says Russia has been testing its “resolve and responsiveness” and points to a growing number of airspace violations. Its Eastern Sentry activity, launched in September 2025, has added fighters, helicopters, surveillance aircraft, air-defence systems and naval assets across the eastern flank, with counter-drone capability among its priorities.

Romania’s figures show the pace at which that challenge is developing. Its aircraft were scrambled twice over drone incidents in 2023. This year they have already been scrambled 43 times.

Whether each individual crossing was deliberate remains a question for investigation. The broader effect is no longer ambiguous: Russia’s continuing drone war against Ukraine is repeatedly penetrating or approaching NATO territory, consuming allied air-defence resources and bringing explosive unmanned systems into areas containing critical European infrastructure.