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German war game shows Russia could seize Nato ground — and hold it unchallenged
A war game run in Germany has modelled a limited Russian incursion into Nato territory and found that Moscow could hold ground for several days without triggering an immediate military response from the alliance. The exercise was organised by Die…
Moscow declares freedom to expand nuclear arsenal after New START ends
Russia has said it no longer considers itself bound by restrictions on its strategic nuclear arsenal as the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between Moscow and Washington reaches its end. In a statement issued on 4 February, the…
Unidentified drone falls inside Polish electronic warfare base near Suwałki Gap
An unidentified drone fell onto the grounds of a Poland military installation in the town of Przasnysz on 28 January, prompting a Polish Military Police investigation and fresh scrutiny of security at sites tasked with monitoring NATO’s north-eastern flank. The…
Does Keir Starmer Not Understand Who Britain’s Enemies Are?
I watched Keir Starmer’s visit to China with a mixture of disbelief and weary recognition. Disbelief, because it is astonishing that a British Prime Minister in 2026 can still wander into Beijing wearing the benign expression of a man who…
If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat
When Carlo Masala set out his hypothetical “Russian victory” in Ukraine, he defined it narrowly: not a march to Kyiv, but Moscow retaining the territories it already occupies. That premise matters because it aligns with the kind of “freeze” or…
South China Sea Tensions Surge as China Steps Up Patrols around Scarborough Shoal
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theatre Command has announced a fresh round of naval and air patrols around Scarborough Shoal, the coral outcrop that has become the unlikeliest flashpoint of the Indo-Pacific’s simmering strategic contest. The declaration, terse but…
Chagos Archipelago: Britain’s Self-Inflicted Strategic Retreat in the Indian Ocean
There are bad ideas in politics, and then there are ideas so recklessly self-defeating that one wonders whether national interest has been deliberately left out of the room. The UK’s current Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s proposed handover of the Chagos…
China-linked machine tools and chips: claims of a supply chain behind Russia’s Oreshnik missile
European governments have often treated dialogue with Beijing as a practical channel in foreign policy, including in managing risks linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine. A recent investigation by The Telegraph has prompted a different focus: whether Chinese-origin industrial equipment…
Starlink terminals on Russian drones raise fears of real-time targeting
Russian forces are increasingly being linked by Ukrainian specialists to the use of Starlink satellite terminals on strike drones, a development that, if sustained, could complicate interception and widen the range of targets that can be engaged under operator control.…
Reclaiming Port of Darwin From China: Australia Sends a Signal of Resolve
In an increasingly volatile world, where strategic certainty is at a premium, Australia’s recent decision to reclaim control of the Port of Darwin represents more than a policy adjustment — it is a confident assertion of national interest that other…