GEOPOLITICAL INSIGHTS
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Xi’s North Korea Visit Tests China’s Control Over a Nuclear Ally Moving Closer to Russia
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s arrival in Pyongyang for talks with Kim Jong Un marks more than a symbolic revival of China-North Korea ties. It is also a test of Beijing’s ability to manage a nuclear-armed neighbour that has gained new…
China Opens New Maritime Pressure Point East of Taiwan
China has opened a new point of maritime pressure east of Taiwan after launching what Beijing described as a special maritime law-enforcement operation in response to planned boundary talks between Japan and the Philippines. The operation, announced through Chinese state…
US House Ukraine Bill Exposes Widening Split Over Support for Kyiv
The US House of Representatives has passed a bill providing new aid to Ukraine and imposing further sanctions on Russia, in a vote that exposed a widening split between President Donald Trump, Republican leaders in Congress and a cross-party group…
Taipei and Beijing Test Boundaries Again at Pratas as South China Sea Tensions Deepen
A fresh confrontation between Taiwanese and Chinese coast guard vessels near the Pratas Islands has underscored how the South China Sea is becoming an increasingly important theatre in the broader contest between Taipei and Beijing. What might once have been dismissed…
Zelenskyy’s Direct Letter to Putin Tests Whether Diplomacy Can Move Without Washington
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued a direct public appeal to Vladimir Putin for face-to-face talks, proposing a neutral venue, a ceasefire during negotiations and an all-for-all prisoner exchange as initial steps towards ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Ukrainian president’s open…
EU’s €100m Lebanon Army Package Places Brussels Inside Hezbollah Disarmament Dispute
The European Union has adopted a €100 million support package for the Lebanese Armed Forces, placing Brussels more directly inside one of the most sensitive security questions in the Middle East: whether the Lebanese state can assert control over weapons…
China’s desert missile build-up raises new questions for Europe’s Indo-Pacific posture
China’s rapid expansion of military infrastructure around its nuclear missile fields is no longer only a question for Washington. It is becoming part of the wider strategic calculation for Europe, whose security now depends on how far the United States…
Europe’s Army Dream Faces a Reality Check
Strategic autonomy sounds compelling. However, building a European army would be far harder than Brussels admits. For decades, the notion of a European army has hovered over Brussels like a political mirage. It reappears whenever the transatlantic relationship comes under…
Taiwan Strait pressure tests US resolve as China expands military activity around island
China’s sustained military operations around Taiwan are increasing pressure on Taipei, raising questions over US deterrence and exposing the strategic importance of the island’s semiconductor industry. China’s military activity around Taiwan has entered a more sustained and politically sensitive phase,…
Lavrov–Rubio Call Signals Moscow’s Attempt to Reframe Strikes on Kyiv
Russia’s warning of “systematic” strikes on Kyiv appears designed to put diplomatic pressure on Washington while seeking to justify further attacks on the Ukrainian capital after one of the largest combined missile and drone assaults of the war. Russia’s Foreign…