STRATEGIC AUTONOMY
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Four Years Since the Invasion: The War’s Strategic Lessons for Ukraine, Russia and Europe
Four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the central expectation that shaped much of the early commentary has not materialised: Moscow has not achieved its declared war aims. On the fourth anniversary, the…
Trump Administration Warns EU Over ‘Buy European’ Defence Procurement Plans
Europe’s accelerating rearmament has opened a new line of tension with Washington: not over whether European states should spend more on defence, but over where that money should go. Reports this week indicate that the Trump administration warned the European…
France-Germany rift over FCAS fighter jet raises new doubts over Europe’s flagship air combat project
A public dispute between France and Germany over the next generation of European fighter aircraft has renewed uncertainty around the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), one of the continent’s most expensive and politically significant defence programmes. The disagreement centres on…
The 48-Hour Problem: NATO’s Response Under Pressure in a Baltic Drill
In the days leading up to the Munich Security Conference on 13–15 February 2026, European media carried a run of scenario-based reporting on how a future security shock might unfold on NATO’s eastern flank. Several of the most widely circulated…
US to hand two NATO command posts to European officers in Naples and Norfolk
The United States is set to hand over leadership of two major NATO operational headquarters to European officers, in a move that would alter a long-standing pattern of American command at senior levels of the Alliance. According to a military…
Unidentified drone falls inside Polish electronic warfare base near Suwałki Gap
An unidentified drone fell onto the grounds of a Poland military installation in the town of Przasnysz on 28 January, prompting a Polish Military Police investigation and fresh scrutiny of security at sites tasked with monitoring NATO’s north-eastern flank. The…
New EU funding and procurement architecture for Ukraine shifts towards arms contracts
The European Commission has put forward a new two-year financial package designed to cover a large share of Ukraine’s forecast needs in 2026 and 2027, while tying a substantial portion of EU-level support more directly to defence procurement. The proposals,…
If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat
When Carlo Masala set out his hypothetical “Russian victory” in Ukraine, he defined it narrowly: not a march to Kyiv, but Moscow retaining the territories it already occupies. That premise matters because it aligns with the kind of “freeze” or…
Merz signals early talks on European “nuclear umbrella” as transatlantic strain deepens
BERLIN — Germany has begun exploring, with European partners, whether a shared nuclear deterrence arrangement could complement the United States’ longstanding role as the ultimate guarantor of European security, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday. Speaking in Berlin after a foreign…
Latvia intelligence: Russia is starting to view Latvia as it viewed Ukraine before the invasion
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (Satversmes aizsardzības birojs, SAB) has warned that Russia is beginning to regard Latvia as it regarded Ukraine before the invasion, even though the service assesses that Moscow does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia.…