Let Ukraine Strike Back — Deeper Into Russia If Necessary

In a conflict now stretching into its fourth year, Ukraine has steadily refined not only its will to resist but its strategic acumen on the battlefield.

The most recent milestone — a successful strike on Russia’s Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery using British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles — should be recognised not merely as a tactical blow, but as evidence of what targeted Western support can achieve when it is bold, decisive and executed with purpose.

The Novoshakhtinsk refinery, a major supplier of fuel for the Russian armed forces, was hit on Christmas Day, its fuel tanks ruptured and multiple explosions recorded, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. What makes this development notable is not just the impact on the Kremlin’s logistical tail, but the message it sends: Ukraine, if equipped with the right systems, can strike at the very sinews of Moscow’s war machine.

For too long, the debate in Western capitals has oscillated between caution and paralysis. Worries about escalation, fears of provoking wider conflict, and an abiding belief that diplomacy must always precede deterrence left Kyiv fighting the last war, rather than the one in front of it. The remarkable resilience of the Ukrainian people has carried them far despite these strategic headwinds. But resilience alone is not strategy; it is time for the West to match Ukrainian courage with the capability to project force where it truly matters.

Storm Shadow has proven its worth as a deep-strike system, capable of penetrating sophisticated air defences and delivering precision effects far from the front lines. The Novoshakhtinsk operation is not the first such raid — Ukrainian military sources note that British missiles and long-range drones have previously hit energy infrastructure deep inside Russia — but it is the most conspicuous demonstration to date of what long-reach Western weapons can achieve.

The idea that Moscow should remain immune while it directs missile terror against Ukrainian cities is strategically incoherent. Deterrence requires symmetry of risk. Storm Shadow has demonstrated that clearly.

Of course, this should not be celebrated merely for its destructive impact. Rather, it underscores a fundamental truth: Ukraine must be enabled to shape its own strategic landscape. Half-measures and incrementalism have gotten us this far; decisive action will determine whether the conflict ends on terms that uphold Ukrainian sovereignty and European security.

To that end, the West must urgently consider expanding the envelope of support. Weapons that can reach deep into Russian territory — not for vengeance, but for deterrence — must be deployed with clear political guidance and oversight. This includes not only Storm Shadow-equivalent cruise missiles but long-range precision strike capabilities such as deep-strike artillery, extended-range loitering munitions and, yes, theatre ballistic missiles with the range to contest the skies over Russia’s industrial heartlands.

Some will recoil at the notion of arming Kyiv with weapons capable of striking as far as Moscow. They will cite risks of escalation or diplomatic fallout. But this line of argument fundamentally misunderstands the nature of deterrence and conflict in the 21st century. Vladimir Putin’s Russia has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to engage in strategic violence — from indiscriminate missile barrages on Ukrainian cities to attacks on critical infrastructure thousands of miles from the frontline. Moscow’s leadership calculates risk not in moral terms but in strategic advantage. Only credible, reciprocal strike capability alters that calculus.

Furthermore, providing Ukraine with advanced long-range systems is not an endorsement of unrestrained warfare; it is a calibrated measure to save lives by shortening conflict. A weakened Russian logistical base — where refineries, ammunition depots and supply hubs are no longer secure — limits Moscow’s capacity to wage war. A stalemated conflict of attrition benefits no one except those who profit from perpetual instability. Kyiv’s objective is not occupation but defence. Enabling it to strike deeper into Russian supply chains and infrastructure is consistent with international law when used in proportion and in response to ongoing invasion.

Britain, which has shown admirable leadership by allowing Storm Shadow use on Russian territory, must now lean into this role rather than retreat into caution. London has a proud history of supporting the forces of freedom against aggression. In the early days of the Cold War, the UK stood shoulder to shoulder with its allies to counter threats that seemed overwhelming at the time. Today’s challenge is no less grave: a revanchist Russia armed with vast resources and seeking to reshape Europe’s security order by force.

It is also worth emphasising that such support should be part of a comprehensive strategy that blends military, economic and diplomatic pressure. Western nations should continue to bolster Ukraine’s air defences, cyber resilience and domestic production of munitions. At the same time, sanctions must remain calibrated to deny Russia the revenues and technology that fuel its war machine. Diplomacy should always be pursued, but it must be backed by the understanding that Ukraine cannot make peace from a position of weakness.

Critically, expanding Ukraine’s strike capacity does not mean a surrender to escalation. On the contrary, it is a rational response to asymmetry. Russia has repeatedly fired missiles at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure deep inside Ukrainian territory. Allowing Moscow’s strategic depth to remain inviolable while denying Kyiv the means to respond creates a perverse imbalance. Strategic parity — not provocation — will most likely deter further aggression.

In the end, the message sent by the Christmas Day strike against Novoshakhtinsk is clear: Ukraine is no longer fighting on the defensive, nor is it alone. It has been given tools that extend its reach, disrupt its foe and undermine only those elements that sustain the Russian war effort. The next step is for the West to build on this momentum, not retreat from it.

The defence of Ukraine is not Ukraine’s burden alone; it is a test of Western resolve. By supplying advanced strike weapons, including those capable of reaching the depths of Russia’s logistical network if required, Britain and its allies can help bring this brutal conflict to a just and sustainable conclusion.