Russia’s much-anticipated summer offensive in Ukraine is faltering, just weeks after its launch, despite an unprecedented number of attacks across a wide front. Analysis suggests that while Russian forces have achieved limited tactical gains, the broader campaign has failed to deliver any strategic breakthrough.

According to data assessed by The Telegraph, Russia is on course to exceed its record for offensive operations in a single month, previously set in May. However, the increased volume of assaults has not been matched by substantive advances.

The offensive, which began in May following months of winter preparations, has focused on several axes: the northern border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv, the contested Donetsk region, and parts of Dnipropetrovsk oblast where Russia is seeking to break new ground.

During the initial weeks of the campaign, Russian forces advanced at their fastest rate since November 2024, gaining approximately 5.5 square miles daily – twice the pace of April – as per the Ukrainian open-source intelligence group DeepState. Notable advances were reported in Donetsk, particularly between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.

However, this early momentum has diminished. “The capacity to start something new and distinct really isn’t there for the Russians right now,” said Angelica Evans, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). “The summer offensive is just going to be the continuation of what they’ve been doing in spring.”

In Sumy region, Russian forces have stalled. Moscow re-entered the region in January, escalating operations in spring, but has since been pushed back in some areas by Ukrainian counter-attacks. Ukraine’s General-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed on Thursday that the Russian advance had been halted and the front line stabilised.

Yunakivka, a town on a direct route into Sumy city, remains Russia’s primary objective in the region. Ukrainian military analyst Pavlo Narozhny warned that if Russia establishes artillery positions in the surrounding forest, Sumy city would be directly threatened.

Despite concentrated efforts, Ukrainian forces have slowed Russian momentum. The ISW reports that Russia is deploying large numbers of undertrained troops in frontline roles, a trend consistent across active sectors.

A senior Ukrainian non-commissioned officer stationed near Kupiansk commented: “They have the advantage in manpower and drones but their infantry is very poorly trained, if at all.”

The broader Russian objective in Sumy is believed to be the creation of a buffer zone along the border to deter Ukrainian cross-border activity, especially drone strikes and raids. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at broader ambitions earlier this month, suggesting at the St Petersburg Economic Forum that taking Sumy city could become a possibility.

Beyond Sumy, Russia is also attempting to breach Ukrainian lines in Dnipropetrovsk and to complete its occupation of the Donbas region, including the cities of Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, and Sloviansk.

Kostiantynivka, a key logistics hub, has emerged as a critical objective. Control of the city would facilitate further Russian operations towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Nevertheless, Ukrainian defenders have so far prevented any meaningful advances.

“To take Kramatorsk they would need an additional 100,000 men,” the Ukrainian NCO said, comparing the manpower requirements to those seen during the battles for Avdiivka and Bakhmut, which involved 40,000 and 70,000 troops respectively, including Wagner Group mercenaries.

Despite a reported 20-to-1 manpower advantage in certain sectors, Ukrainian forces continue to hold defensive lines.

Analysts argue that Russia’s operational sustainability is under strain. Nick Reynolds of the Royal United Services Institute noted: “They’ve been unable to sustain that pressure, due to their stock of refurbishable weapons, specifically artillery and armoured vehicles.”

Urban fighting around Toretsk has slowed Russian advances, while attacks in Pokrovsk remain frequent but largely ineffective. Over a quarter of Ukraine’s reported front-line engagements on Thursday occurred in the Pokrovsk area, yet no ground was gained.

“The Russians haven’t taken a city for some time,” said Professor Michael Clarke, a defence analyst. “They celebrate victories in small towns and villages that lack strategic value.”

With offensives underway simultaneously in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk, Russian forces appear overstretched. “Any benefit they would have in Donetsk is lost because their forces are overstretched,” Clarke added.

According to ISW’s Evans, Russia’s approach remains shaped by risk aversion and a desire to avoid high-casualty breakthroughs. Instead, Moscow favours attritional pressure across a broad front, aiming to force a general collapse of Ukrainian resistance. “The Russians are risk averse,” Evans said, “which whittles its way down from Putin.”

This approach, analysts argue, is unlikely to achieve decisive results. “The Russian forces seem to have accepted that this is just the way warfare is, even though it’s not true,” Reynolds said.

In spite of limited progress on the battlefield, Russia has escalated its missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian cities. On Monday, a strike in Kyiv killed at least nine people. Another attack on Dnipro on Tuesday killed 19 and wounded over 300. On Saturday, a strike on a residential building in Odesa killed two and injured 17.

These strikes appear to reflect a broader objective: to depopulate targeted areas and facilitate eventual occupation. “We have seen a marked intensification of strikes since January 2025,” said Evans. “It’s an effort to convince people to leave and to make it easier in the future to seize these cities.”

One of Russia’s few tangible gains this month was the capture of a lithium deposit near Shevchenko in western Donetsk – one of Ukraine’s richest known reserves. Though the mine covers only 100 acres, its strategic and economic significance is considerable.

Nonetheless, the overall picture is one of a campaign struggling to meet its objectives. Despite intensive preparation, numerical superiority, and high operational tempo, Russia’s summer offensive has produced limited results and shown clear signs of exhaustion.