GEOPOLITICAL INSIGHTS
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Rubio tells Europe a new geopolitical era is under way ahead of Munich address
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned European allies that they are entering a “new era in geopolitics” as he arrived in Europe ahead of a headline address at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, 14 February 2026. Speaking…
How Sudan’s War Is Drawing in Its Neighbours
The war in Sudan has always threatened to become something larger than a mere domestic tragedy. Now, according to a striking investigation, it may already have done so. Fresh reporting suggests that neighbouring Ethiopia has been hosting a clandestine military…
India-EU Security and Defence Partnership Heralds A New Era Of Industrial Diplomacy
Europe’s defence relationship with India has long been discussed in the abstract, framed by polite communiqués and aspirational memoranda. Now, it is beginning to take on substance. The emerging India–EU defence partnership, with its emphasis on co-production rather than mere…
German war game shows Russia could seize Nato ground — and hold it unchallenged
A war game run in Germany has modelled a limited Russian incursion into Nato territory and found that Moscow could hold ground for several days without triggering an immediate military response from the alliance. The exercise was organised by Die…
If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat
When Carlo Masala set out his hypothetical “Russian victory” in Ukraine, he defined it narrowly: not a march to Kyiv, but Moscow retaining the territories it already occupies. That premise matters because it aligns with the kind of “freeze” or…
China-linked machine tools and chips: claims of a supply chain behind Russia’s Oreshnik missile
European governments have often treated dialogue with Beijing as a practical channel in foreign policy, including in managing risks linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine. A recent investigation by The Telegraph has prompted a different focus: whether Chinese-origin industrial equipment…
Iran: Washington’s latest drills send a message Tehran cannot ignore
In Washington’s corridors of power, where rhetoric often alternates between bravado and caution, the announcement this week of a multi-day aerial military exercise in the Middle East has been portrayed by the Pentagon as a routine demonstration of readiness. Yet…
Latvia intelligence: Russia is starting to view Latvia as it viewed Ukraine before the invasion
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (Satversmes aizsardzības birojs, SAB) has warned that Russia is beginning to regard Latvia as it regarded Ukraine before the invasion, even though the service assesses that Moscow does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia.…
Chopping off the predator’s paws: what Europe’s new security requires
Between Davos and Munich In a few weeks, the theme of the 56th World Economic Forum will have slipped off the front pages, though references to “Trump in Davos”, “Carney in Davos”, “Zelenskyy in Davos” and the rest will remain.…
US to host hemispheric defence chiefs meeting Feb 11
The United States will host chiefs of defence and senior military representatives from 34 Western Hemisphere nations on 11 February for what the Pentagon has described as the inaugural Western Hemisphere Chiefs of Defence Conference. The meeting will be chaired…