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If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat

If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat

When Carlo Masala set out his hypothetical “Russian victory” in Ukraine, he defined it narrowly: not a march to Kyiv, but Moscow retaining the territories it already occupies. That premise matters because it aligns with the kind of “freeze” or…

China-linked machine tools and chips: claims of a supply chain behind Russia’s Oreshnik missile

China-linked machine tools and chips: claims of a supply chain behind Russia’s Oreshnik missile

European governments have often treated dialogue with Beijing as a practical channel in foreign policy, including in managing risks linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine. A recent investigation by The Telegraph has prompted a different focus: whether Chinese-origin industrial equipment…

Kharkiv rail strike raises questions over Russia’s civilian targeting and negotiation pressure on Ukraine

Kharkiv rail strike raises questions over Russia’s civilian targeting and negotiation pressure on Ukraine

A Russian drone strike on a civilian passenger train in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region on 27 January 2026 has sharpened attention on the targeting of civilians as diplomatic contacts continue in parallel. Ukrainian prosecutors said five people were killed when drones…