GEOPOLITICAL INSIGHTS
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Zelenskyy’s warning to Trump: peace without guarantees will fail Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plea to Donald Trump — “stay on our side” — should be read as more than an appeal for sympathy. It is a warning about strategy. At the centre of the current diplomacy is a question that sounds…
The F-35 and the Future of European Alignment
This week, the United States ambassador to Portugal, John Arrigo, delivered a suggestion that was less a procurement recommendation than a geopolitical proposition. Lisbon, he said, should replace its aging fleet of F-16 fighter aircraft with the American-made F-35 stealth jet…
Moscow and Tehran: Alleged Verba Missile Agreement Adds New Pressure on Washington
A reported secret Russian-Iranian air defence deal has added a new layer of risk to an already volatile stand-off between Washington and Tehran, while raising wider questions about the strategic alignment linking Russia, Iran and, indirectly, China. According to a…
US-Iran talks enter another deadline phase as military pressure builds
A fresh 48-hour deadline has pushed the United States-Iran nuclear stand-off into another compressed negotiating window, with a new round of talks expected in Geneva on Thursday, 26 February. Oman has confirmed that US and Iranian officials are due to…
Putin doubles down on militarisation while Geneva talks yield no breakthrough
Vladimir Putin used Russia’s Defender of the Fatherland Day on 23 February to call for further military expansion and to urge national unity around the war, in remarks that provided no indication of a shift towards ending hostilities, as US-mediated…
Trump team pauses Taiwan arms package ahead of prospective April China visit
The Trump administration has delayed decisions on a major arms-sales package for Taiwan amid Chinese pressure and concern in Washington that moving ahead could complicate President Donald Trump’s expected visit to Beijing in April, according to reporting by The Wall…
Major General Wolf-Jürgen Stahl’s Trump Broadside Exposes Europe’s Strategic Anxiety
It is not often that a serving German general publicly dissects the character of an American president. That taboo has now been shattered. Major General Wolf-Jürgen Stahl, head of Berlin’s Federal Academy for Security Policy, has delivered a diagnosis of…
Washington Tightens the Noose: Ford Heads East as Iran Rejects US Red Lines
Washington’s military posture towards Iran hardened on Thursday as a second US aircraft carrier steamed towards the Middle East, air power in theatre reached levels not seen since the opening phase of the Iraq war, and negotiators left Geneva with…
Kremlin Calls Shadow Fleet Seizures ‘Piracy’ and Threatens Naval Response
The war in Ukraine has long since escaped the trenches of Donbas and the missile-scarred cities of the Black Sea coast. Sanctions, sabotage, cyber operations and energy coercion have transformed it into something broader: a systemic contest between Russia and…
Munich: Rubio Reminds the West That Confidence, Not Apology, Keeps the Peace
The Munich Security Conference has long been a gathering devoted to reassurance. Diplomats reassure allies, allies reassure one another, and collectively the West reassures itself that stability can be preserved largely by good intentions and the careful management of tensions.…