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German war game shows Russia could seize Nato ground — and hold it unchallenged
A war game run in Germany has modelled a limited Russian incursion into Nato territory and found that Moscow could hold ground for several days without triggering an immediate military response from the alliance. The exercise was organised by Die…
Moscow declares freedom to expand nuclear arsenal after New START ends
Russia has said it no longer considers itself bound by restrictions on its strategic nuclear arsenal as the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between Moscow and Washington reaches its end. In a statement issued on 4 February, the…
Unidentified drone falls inside Polish electronic warfare base near Suwałki Gap
An unidentified drone fell onto the grounds of a Poland military installation in the town of Przasnysz on 28 January, prompting a Polish Military Police investigation and fresh scrutiny of security at sites tasked with monitoring NATO’s north-eastern flank. The…
If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat
When Carlo Masala set out his hypothetical “Russian victory” in Ukraine, he defined it narrowly: not a march to Kyiv, but Moscow retaining the territories it already occupies. That premise matters because it aligns with the kind of “freeze” or…
China-linked machine tools and chips: claims of a supply chain behind Russia’s Oreshnik missile
European governments have often treated dialogue with Beijing as a practical channel in foreign policy, including in managing risks linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine. A recent investigation by The Telegraph has prompted a different focus: whether Chinese-origin industrial equipment…
Starlink terminals on Russian drones raise fears of real-time targeting
Russian forces are increasingly being linked by Ukrainian specialists to the use of Starlink satellite terminals on strike drones, a development that, if sustained, could complicate interception and widen the range of targets that can be engaged under operator control.…
CSIS: Russia’s advance in Ukraine measured in metres, not kilometres
A Washington-based think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), says the pace of Russia’s ground advance in Ukraine has fallen to levels that are historically low when set against major combined-arms offensives over the past century. In…
Kharkiv rail strike raises questions over Russia’s civilian targeting and negotiation pressure on Ukraine
A Russian drone strike on a civilian passenger train in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region on 27 January 2026 has sharpened attention on the targeting of civilians as diplomatic contacts continue in parallel. Ukrainian prosecutors said five people were killed when drones…
Latvia intelligence: Russia is starting to view Latvia as it viewed Ukraine before the invasion
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (Satversmes aizsardzības birojs, SAB) has warned that Russia is beginning to regard Latvia as it regarded Ukraine before the invasion, even though the service assesses that Moscow does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia.…
Donbas Withdrawal Emerges as Reported Condition in US–Ukraine Talks on Guarantee
Washington has signalled that any US security guarantees for Ukraine may depend on Kyiv accepting a peace deal that would involve relinquishing control of the Donbas, according to a Financial Times report. The report said US officials had also raised…