STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
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China’s Own ‘Mythos’ Moment Raises Stakes in AI Cyber Race with US
A new warning from former US National Security Council technology official Chris McGuire argues that China could soon develop an AI cyber capability comparable to Anthropic’s Claude Mythos, narrowing America’s lead and increasing pressure on Washington to harden critical infrastructure…
The Falkland Islands: A Dispute Settled in Battle, Confirmed in Law, Revived in Politics
Argentina’s periodic reawakening of its claim over the Falkland Islands is as predictable as it is politically useful. Each resurgence tends to coincide less with any meaningful shift in international law than with domestic pressures in Buenos Aires. The latest…
Portugal: Nuno Melo draws red line on EU army ambitions as Spain pushes strategic autonomy debate
Portugal has firmly rejected the idea of a separate European army, placing itself at odds with Spain and reopening a long-running debate over the future of Europe’s defence architecture at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Speaking in Lisbon, Portugal’s…
Is Beijing prolonging war in Iran to expose America’s weakness?
The reports emerging from Washington this week are, on the face of it, fragmentary and hedged with caveats. Yet even in their ambiguity they point to something far more consequential than the mere movement of weapons. According to intelligence assessments…
Rutte uses Washington speech to press allies on spending and defence production
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte used a Washington speech on 9th April to argue that allied defence planning now points towards spending equivalent to 3.5 per cent of GDP on core military requirements and 1.5 per cent on broader defence-related…
Ceasefire on paper, escalation in theatre: Iran’s 10 demands and the US build-up in the Gulf
A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has paused immediate hostilities, but the crisis remains unresolved. Tehran’s 10 conditions amount to a sweeping political demand set, while Washington continues to reinforce its military presence in the Gulf, indicating…
From Cyprus to the Falkland Islands: Britain’s Defence Failures Are Slowly Mounting
The rhetoric coming out of Buenos Aires this past week should not be dismissed as mere posturing. When Javier Milei stands before his nation and reasserts Argentina’s claim to the Falkland Islands—while pledging to rebuild his country’s armed forces and…
EU weighs stronger Aspides role as Hormuz crisis tests Europe’s maritime reach
Foreign ministers are discussing whether to reinforce the EU’s Aspides naval mission as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz exposes the limits of Europe’s ability to protect key shipping routes. The European Union is once again confronting the gap…
Four Years Since the Invasion: The War’s Strategic Lessons for Ukraine, Russia and Europe
Four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the central expectation that shaped much of the early commentary has not materialised: Moscow has not achieved its declared war aims. On the fourth anniversary, the…
Zelenskyy’s warning to Trump: peace without guarantees will fail Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plea to Donald Trump — “stay on our side” — should be read as more than an appeal for sympathy. It is a warning about strategy. At the centre of the current diplomacy is a question that sounds…