STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
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LEAP Forward: The New Defence Blueprint from Europe’s Military Leaders
In Krakow this week, defence ministers from Europe’s most powerful military states convened under the shadow of a new strategic imperative — the airborne battlefield. France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom, traditionally cautious in their collective defence responses,…
Washington Tightens the Noose: Ford Heads East as Iran Rejects US Red Lines
Washington’s military posture towards Iran hardened on Thursday as a second US aircraft carrier steamed towards the Middle East, air power in theatre reached levels not seen since the opening phase of the Iraq war, and negotiators left Geneva with…
NATO rehearses Baltic amphibious landing near Kiel amid renewed focus on Kaliningrad and sea lanes
NATO troops have staged an amphibious landing exercise on Germany’s Baltic coast, close to the port city of Kiel, in a drill involving roughly 3,000 personnel and forming part of the wider Steadfast Dart 2026 programme. The beach-assault phase took…
The New Polar Front: Why Greenland Matters Again to Western Defence
In the long Arctic dusk, where the horizon blurs into a pale sheet of ice and the air itself seems to crystallise, modern air power is subjected to a test no laboratory can replicate. This winter the North American Aerospace…
From Treaties to Tensions: How the Nuclear Order Is Unravelling
When Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov says Moscow is ready for a world without nuclear limits, he is not threatening apocalypse. He is doing something more unsettling: calmly acknowledging that the era of negotiated restraint between great powers is…
If Russia Wins: A Scenario and the Logic of the West’s Managed Defeat
When Carlo Masala set out his hypothetical “Russian victory” in Ukraine, he defined it narrowly: not a march to Kyiv, but Moscow retaining the territories it already occupies. That premise matters because it aligns with the kind of “freeze” or…
South China Sea Tensions Surge as China Steps Up Patrols around Scarborough Shoal
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theatre Command has announced a fresh round of naval and air patrols around Scarborough Shoal, the coral outcrop that has become the unlikeliest flashpoint of the Indo-Pacific’s simmering strategic contest. The declaration, terse but…
Chagos Archipelago: Britain’s Self-Inflicted Strategic Retreat in the Indian Ocean
There are bad ideas in politics, and then there are ideas so recklessly self-defeating that one wonders whether national interest has been deliberately left out of the room. The UK’s current Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s proposed handover of the Chagos…
Latvia intelligence: Russia is starting to view Latvia as it viewed Ukraine before the invasion
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (Satversmes aizsardzības birojs, SAB) has warned that Russia is beginning to regard Latvia as it regarded Ukraine before the invasion, even though the service assesses that Moscow does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia.…
Chopping off the predator’s paws: what Europe’s new security requires
Between Davos and Munich In a few weeks, the theme of the 56th World Economic Forum will have slipped off the front pages, though references to “Trump in Davos”, “Carney in Davos”, “Zelenskyy in Davos” and the rest will remain.…
