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US-Iran MOU Ends War but Leaves 60-Day Test Over Nuclear Limits, Hormuz and Lebanon
Donald Trump and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian have signed an initial memorandum to end the war, but the 14-point deal leaves the hardest questions over sanctions, nuclear monitoring, Hormuz shipping and Lebanon to a short negotiating window. The United States and…
Ukraine Missile Licensing Marks Shift From Aid Packages to Wartime Production
G7 support for licensed production of air-defence and long-range weapons would move Ukraine’s military supply model beyond emergency deliveries. The question is whether Western governments and defence companies can convert political approval into factory output quickly enough. Western support for…
Ukrainian drones hit Moscow oil refinery as fire sends smoke across Russian capital
A strike on the Kapotnya refinery has again exposed the vulnerability of Russia’s fuel infrastructure, with Moscow airports disrupted during one of the largest recent drone attacks on the capital. Ukrainian drones struck the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya early…
US “NATO 3.0” Push Turns Europe’s Defence Burden Into a Force-Planning Test
Washington’s call for a tougher “NATO 3.0” is not only a spending demand. It forces European allies to plan for crises in which US aircraft, carriers, tankers and command assets may no longer be available by default. The United States’…
G7 Ukraine Pledge Tests Whether Air-Defence Promises Can Become Deliveries
G7 leaders have pledged additional air-defence systems, interceptors and long-range capabilities for Ukraine. The question is whether the commitment can be converted into weapons before Russia intensifies its winter strike campaign. The G7 summit in Évian has produced a renewed…
Russian Frigate Warning Shots Near UK Waters Raise Channel Maritime Risk
A Russian frigate’s warning shots near a UK-flagged yacht in the Channel highlight a wider maritime-risk problem where Russian naval movements, civilian traffic and shadow-fleet enforcement increasingly overlap. A Russian frigate’s warning shots near a UK-flagged civilian yacht in the…
Germany-Poland Defence Deal Shows Europe’s Security Centre Moving East
Germany and Poland’s new defence agreement is more than bilateral housekeeping: it signals that Europe’s security centre is shifting east, where military mobility, Baltic Sea security and Russia deterrence now converge. Germany and Poland’s new defence agreement marks a practical…
Defence Production Act Deployed as US Seeks Arsenal Expansion
The Trump administration has taken a significant step towards reshaping America’s defence industrial capacity, invoking the Defence Production Act (DPA) to address what it describes as growing vulnerabilities in the country’s munitions supply chains and weapons manufacturing base. The move…
Franco-British Hormuz Mission Tests Europe’s Ability to Secure Shipping After Iran Deal
France and Britain are pushing a multinational maritime mission for the Strait of Hormuz, but the practical test will be whether Iran accepts any foreign security presence and whether insurers judge the waterway safe enough for normal traffic to resume.…
UK Defence Spending Row Deepens as Drone and Procurement Questions Test NATO Credibility
Britain’s defence spending row has moved beyond headline budget numbers, after Al Carns’ criticism of MoD waste exposed a deeper fight over drones, procurement priorities and NATO credibility. The UK’s defence spending row has deepened into a wider argument over…