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China’s Critical Minerals Behind America’s Missiles
The United States still possesses the world’s most formidable military. It fields the most advanced aircraft, the most sophisticated satellites and a nuclear arsenal of unmatched technological complexity. Yet, according to a warning delivered this week by lawmakers in Washington,…
Four Years Since the Invasion: The War’s Strategic Lessons for Ukraine, Russia and Europe
Four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the central expectation that shaped much of the early commentary has not materialised: Moscow has not achieved its declared war aims. On the fourth anniversary, the…
AUKUS: U.K.–Australia Talks Focus on Building Weapons Together
The United Kingdom and Australia have long described each other as “natural partners,” a phrase that has echoed through decades of diplomacy, shared intelligence networks and wartime memory. Under AUKUS, that sentiment is now taking a more concrete form —…
Zelenskyy’s warning to Trump: peace without guarantees will fail Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plea to Donald Trump — “stay on our side” — should be read as more than an appeal for sympathy. It is a warning about strategy. At the centre of the current diplomacy is a question that sounds…
The F-35 and the Future of European Alignment
This week, the United States ambassador to Portugal, John Arrigo, delivered a suggestion that was less a procurement recommendation than a geopolitical proposition. Lisbon, he said, should replace its aging fleet of F-16 fighter aircraft with the American-made F-35 stealth jet…
Blasts Targeting Ukrainian Police Raise Fears of a New Kremlin Destabilisation Campaign
A series of explosions targeting or affecting Ukrainian police facilities in Lviv, Mykolaiv and Dnipro within a matter of days has prompted renewed concern in Kyiv over a possible campaign of destabilisation aimed at law enforcement. On Monday, 23 February,…
Moscow and Tehran: Alleged Verba Missile Agreement Adds New Pressure on Washington
A reported secret Russian-Iranian air defence deal has added a new layer of risk to an already volatile stand-off between Washington and Tehran, while raising wider questions about the strategic alignment linking Russia, Iran and, indirectly, China. According to a…
US-Iran talks enter another deadline phase as military pressure builds
A fresh 48-hour deadline has pushed the United States-Iran nuclear stand-off into another compressed negotiating window, with a new round of talks expected in Geneva on Thursday, 26 February. Oman has confirmed that US and Iranian officials are due to…
Putin doubles down on militarisation while Geneva talks yield no breakthrough
Vladimir Putin used Russia’s Defender of the Fatherland Day on 23 February to call for further military expansion and to urge national unity around the war, in remarks that provided no indication of a shift towards ending hostilities, as US-mediated…
US allegations over covert Chinese nuclear testing sharpen scrutiny of Beijing’s modernisation drive
Claims by US officials that China may have conducted a covert nuclear explosive test are likely to intensify an already fraught debate over strategic stability, arms control and the pace of Beijing’s military modernisation. The issue re-entered public discussion this…